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The Fallacy of the Paper Loss
Written by Steve | Published: |
This last week the markets have been very “interesting” to say the least. With the Fed announcements, Unemployment numbers, and with Japan abruptly changing rates and the carry trade issues that brought. It caused quite a bit of market volatility.
I remember after the 2008 crash talking to individuals even three years later, they would tell me that they are still in a loss position and didn’t want to do anything yet because it was just a paper loss.
I’m not sure where this mentality originated, but it has kept people stuck for years.
The Reality of “Paper Losses”
It’s common to think of a loss on an investment as just a temporary dip—a paper loss that doesn’t affect you unless you sell. However, this mindset can trap your capital in an underperforming asset, delaying your recovery and hindering the growth of your portfolio.
The Disproportionate Effect of Losses vs. Gains
One crucial aspect to understand is that losses have a disproportionate impact on your overall returns compared to gains. For example, if you experience a 20% loss on an investment, it requires a 25% gain just to break even. If the loss is 50%, you need a 100% gain to recover your original investment.
This is why holding onto a losing position with the hope that it will eventually recover can be more damaging than it seems. The longer your capital is tied up in a losing position, the harder it becomes to regain your losses and achieve meaningful growth.
Strategic Repositioning: A Path to Recovery
Rather than waiting for an underperforming asset to recover, a more effective strategy is to cut your losses and reallocate those funds into stronger, better-performing assets. By doing so, you give your portfolio a chance to recover more quickly and potentially exceed its previous highs. This approach allows you to take advantage of current market opportunities, positioning your investments for future growth.
Example in Action
Let’s say you invested $10,000 in an asset, and its value drops by 30%, bringing your investment down to $7,000. To get back to your original $10,000, you would need a gain of approximately 43%. However, if you cut your losses and reinvest that $7,000 into a stronger-performing asset that gains 15% per year, your investment would grow to around $8,050 in one year. While you haven’t fully recovered, this strategy sets you on a more promising path compared to waiting for the original asset to make a 43% recovery.
Take Control of Your Portfolio’s Future
In today’s market, it’s essential to stay proactive with your investments. By regularly reassessing your portfolio and making strategic decisions about cutting losses, repositioning, using indexing, and prioritizing your cashflow you can enhance your returns and better protect your financial future.